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The year of 2016 was marked by record prices in São Paulo State, both in the industrial segment and the in natura market. Boost came from the combination of low orange production with firm demand, since juice inventories were reduced at processors.
Forecasting a limited amount of fruits along the 2016/17 crop, processors from SP State advanced purchases for March, three months before the usual period in the last seasons. Values in the spot market and one year contracts reached the highest nominal averages in all Cepea series, which started in 1994.
On the average of the season (July/16 to December/16), prices paid by processors for pear and late oranges in the spot market were 22.21 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and at processors, a staggering 79.2% up compared to the average in the second semester of 2015.
In the in natura market, pear orange was traded at more than 40.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, in November; on the average of that month, pear orange was quoted at 34.66 BRL per box, a nominal record and a staggering 112% up compared to Nov/15. In the second semester, it has averaged 32.82 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, a staggering 97.3% up compared to the second half of 2015.
Tahiti lime quotes also kept at high levels during all the year, reaching nominal records. Even at the supply peak (January to March), quotes were underpinned at high levels, reflecting firm processors demand. Besides, exportations increase reduced domestic supply significantly.
The current crop (2016/17) in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may end with 244.2 million boxes, volume 18.7% below that in the 2015/16 season and the lowest in 28 years, according to estimates from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released in December.
The low orange production in the citrus belt may, still, empty ending stocks at processors, a scenario that has never been observed before. According to Citrus BR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), at the end of June/17, the volume of stocked orange juice may be limited to a little more than 2 thousand tons, the lowest level in all times and much lower than the amount considered strategic, at 300 thousand tons. The final report, however, will be published only in August 2017.
In Florida, the current crop (2016/17) will be low again, and production in the 2015/16 season has already been the smallest in 52 years. The USDA estimates 72 million 40.8-kilo boxes will be produced, 12% down compared to last season. This scenario may result in a stock reduction in Florida, which may increase the need for importations of the Brazilian commodity in a year of low juice supply in Brazil, the main global producer.
Source: hfbrasil.org.br
